Rome, December 2001
Highlights
Latest information indicates a slightly
larger global cereal output in 2001, of 1 870 million tonnes (including
rice in milled terms). However, even at this level, production would still
be less than the anticipated utilization requirements in 2001/02, leading
to a significant draw-down of cereal stocks.
While Afghanistan currently faces
a grave food supply situation, food emergencies persist in many other
countries (see box on page 6).
World cereal trade in 2001/02 is
forecast at 233 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous season's
estimated volume. Stronger demand for wheat and rice would be offset by
a reduction in coarse grain trade.
International prices for most cereals
have changed little since September. Wheat prices have fallen below
the previous year's levels, reflecting relatively large export supplies
and slack import demand. Large maize inventories, on top of abundant supplies
of feed wheat, continue to weigh on feed grain prices, while new rice crop
supplies on the market have kept international rice prices under pressure
in the past three months.
Total cereal food aid in 2001/02
(July/June) could increase by 1 million tonnes, to 9.5 million tonnes
(in grain equivalent), after a sharp drop in the previous season. Latest
information puts total shipments in 2000/01 at 8.5 million tonnes, 24 percent
smaller than in 1999/2000.
Cereal import bills could rise in
2001/02. Should the current forecasts for cereal trade, food aid and
prices for 2001/02 materialize, the more vulnerable and food deficit regions
could face larger cereal import bills this season than in 2000/01.
Global milk output in 2001 is forecast
at 585 million tonnes, up 2 percent from the previous year. Although
the international dairy market was well-balanced up until mid-2001, prices
of dairy products have weakened somewhat in recent months due to reduced
import demand.
Global sugar demand in 2001 is currently
forecast to reach 130.7 million tonnes, up by about 2 million tonnes from
the previous year, and overtaking annual production, now forecast at 129.4
million tonnes, for the first time in seven years. Although early indications
point to a production deficit also in 2002, adequate global stocks are
expected to ensure continued market stability throughout 2002.
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ENQUIRIES should be directed to Mr. Abdur Rashid, Chief, Global Information and Early Warning Service, Commodities and Trade Division (ESC), FAO - Rome. Direct Facsimile: 39-06-5705-4495; E-mail giews1@fao.org).
Food Outlook and other GIEWS reports are available on the Internet as part of the FAO World Wide Web (www.fao.org) at the following URL address: http://www.fao.org/giews/. In addition, some of the GIEWS regular reports can be received by E-mail through automatic mailing lists: subscription information is available at http://www.fao.org/giews/english/listserv.htm
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